Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two pieces that aim for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he commented. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
